Monday, January 19, 2015

Dose Limiting Toxicity (DLT) and Common Toxicity Criteria (CTC) / Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE)

For the early clinical phase trials, especially first-in-man oncology studies, the major objective is usually to identify a safe dose, such as the MTD (maximal tolerated dose),  the highest dose that can be given with acceptable toxicity, and establish the safety profile. To identify the MTD, dose escalation studies are usually conducted. The determination of the MTD is based on the occurrence of the DLT (dose limiting toxicity), Dose-Limiting toxicity is defined to be a toxicity that prevents further administration of the agent at that dose level. One of the criteria for FDA to approve a Breakthrough Therapy designation for an experimental drug is that the experimental drug can significantly improve safety profile compared to available therapy (e.g., less dose-limiting toxicity for an oncology agent), with evidence of similar efficacy.

The choice of DLT (dose-limiting toxicity) may vary from study to study based on the natural history of the disease and the level of toxicity expected from standard therapy. For example, one might accept a greater degree of toxicity for a patient with end-stage cancer who has no other options, but less toxicity for a healthy individual getting a preventive medicine. 


CTC (Common Toxicity Criteria) is the precursor of what is today named the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE). The original CTC was developed by the Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program (CTEP) of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) in 1983 to aid in the documentation and analysis of adverse effects of chemotherapy. CTC, like CTCAE, included terms and a severity grading scale with descriptions of the allowed grades of each term. Starting from v3, the CTC was replaced by CTCAE v3.

CTCAE is a list of terms (adverse events) commonly encountered in oncology interventions. Each AE term is defined and associated with a rating scale of severity that indicates the severity of the AE. The rating scale is used in the definition of protocols parameters (Eligibility; Maximum Tolerated Dose; Dose modification; etc) and indicates what is reasonable to document, report, and analyze for patient safety oversight based on current oncology research interventions. CTCAE is available only in English and the most recent version of CTCAE is verion 4.0. In the new CTCAE v4.0, the AE terms are organized by the System Organ Classes (SOCs) defined by the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA). CTCAE has been developed from the earlier vocabulary known as CTC (Common Toxicity Criteria).

While CTC / CTCAE were developed by NCI, they were being used for clinical trials outside cancer trials such as AIDS/HIV trials, hypertension trials, and others.

The definition of Dose-limiting Toxicity (DLT) is determined by the individual protocol, not the CTC or CTCAE. Although it would be convenient to assume that all Grade 3 adverse events based on CTC or CTCAE represent dose limiting toxicities, this may not be appropriate. Grade 3 or 4 adverse events (based on CTC or CTCAE) of complications such as nausea and vomiting can be controlled with appropriate supportive care measures and may not constitute DLTs. Prolonged grade 2 toxicities can be considered DLTs depending on the schedule of drug administration. Acceptable DLTs or adverse events vary with the patient population and the anticipated outcome of the treatment. More severe adverse events may be acceptable with a potentially curative regimen than with a palliative treatment.

Typically in clinical trials, investigators will base their clinical judgment to grade all reported adverse events (AEs) during the study with three categories: mild, moderate, and severe.

Mild: An event that is easily tolerated by the subject, causing minimal discomfort and not             interfering with everyday activities.
Moderate: An event that is sufficiently discomforting to interfere with normal everyday activities.
Severe: An event that prevents normal everyday activities.

For oncology trials, the Grading should be based on CTCAE as following:
Grade 0 No Adverse Event

Sign/symptom within normal limits
Grade 1 Mild Adverse Event
Minor
Mild symptoms and intervention not indicated
Non-prescription intervention indicated
No specific medical intervention
Asymptomatic laboratory finding only
Radiographic finding only
Marginal clinical relevance

Grade 2 Moderate Adverse Event
Intervention indicated
Minimal, local, noninvasive intervention (e.g. packing, cautery)
Limiting instrumental ADL (e.g., shopping; laundry; transportation; ability to conduct finances)

Grade 3 Severe Adverse Event
Medically significant but not life-threatening
Inpatient or prolongation of hospitalization indicated
Important medical event that does not result in hospitalization but may jeopardize the patient or may require intervention either to prevent hospitalization or to prevent the AE from becoming life-threatening or potentially resulting in death
Disabling - results in persistent or significant disability or incapacity
Limiting self care ADL (e.g., getting in and out of bed; dressing; eating; getting around inside; bathing; using the toilet)
Grade 4 Life-threatening Adverse Event

Life-threatening consequences      
Urgent intervention indicated
Urgent operative intervention indicated
Patient is at risk of death at the time of the event if immediate intervention is not undertaken
Grade 5 Fatal Adverse Event
           
Death

To map the CTCAE grading to AE severity / intensity, any AE graded as 1 using CTCAE can be categorized as mild, 2 be categorized as moderate and ≥3 be categorized as severe.

There are considerable discussions about the standardization in determining the dose limiting toxicities.






In a paper by Paoletti et al “Defining dose-limiting toxicity for phase 1 trials of molecularly targeted agents: Results of a DLT-TARGETT international survey”, it was stated “DLT is traditionally defined as any grade 3–4 non-haematological or grade 4 haematological toxicity at least possibly related to the treatment, occurring during the first cycle of treatment. Some adjustments to this definition have been widely accepted, such as febrile neutropenia, or neutropenia grade 4 lasting more than 7 days or abnormal laboratory values rated as a DLT only in the presence of clinical symptoms.”





Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Alternative phase I dose escalation study designs: CRM, BLRM, mTPI, and PGDE

The "3 + 3 design" is the most commonly used design in phase I dose escalation study and over 95% of phase I clinical trials in oncology use the "3 + 3 design". However, in some situations, the "3 + 3 design" may not be the best choice for finding the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) and alternative dose escalation study designs are necessary.

Cytel's EAST software version 6.3 introduced a new module 'ESCALATE' which includes additional phase I dose escalation study designs. In additional to the standard "3 + 3 design", it contains the following designs:
where CRM, modified CRM, and BLRM are model based method and mTPI is a mixture of both rule-based and model based method. 

The original CRM is a Bayesian model-based method and uses all available information from doses to guide assignment of the next dose cohort. A CRM simulator can be downloaded from MD Anderson biostatistics website. The modified CRM makes the CRM more like the "3 + 3 design" (can start at lowest dose, allow multiple patients per cohort, do not allow skipping when escalating) for acceptability. A CRM and modified CRM program developed by Dr Steven Piantados can be downloaded from his website. BLRM is commonly used with overdose control (so called EWOC - Escalation With Overdose Control). In this method, models begin with initial estimates of knowledge based on prior clinical data or pre-clinical data. Models are then updated with new information as it becomes available. Updated information forms the basis of dose escalation recommendations. The principles of Bayesian Logistic regression models are:
  • precision of model estimates incorporated into dosing decisions 
  • restriction of the chance of exposing patients to excessive toxicity, whilst allowing clinicians to make informed dosing decisions based on estimated probabilities of under-dosing and targeted-dosing 
mTPI is Bayesian like CRM and BLRM, but rule-based like the "3 + 3 design". The method is proposed by Yuan Ji et al in their paper "a modified toxicity probability interval method for dose-finding trials". The method can be implemented by excel add-on or R scripts (download for free).

These methods and their usage with EAST ESCALATE module were explained in a free online Webinar "New module for Phase 1 dose escalation study design". ESCALATE module in EAST can perform simulation and interim monitoring for each of these methods.

Phase I Clinical Trial Design by Drs. Rubinstein and Simon discussed additional study designs for phase I dose escalation studies in addition to the "3 + 3 design", original CRM, and amendments and alteration of CRMs:

Accelerated titration designs which are characterized by (i) A rapid initial escalation phase; (ii) Intra-patient dose escalation; and (iii) Analysis of results using a model that incorporates parameters for intra-patient variation in toxic effects, cumulative toxicity and steepness of dose-toxicity effects. The analytic model incorporates data from all courses of therapy and for graded toxicity levels.

Pharmacokinetically Guided Dose Escalation (PGDE) which is based on the mouse and human AUC to escalate to an MTD by targeting a maximal tolerated AUC. The efficiency of PGDE relies on the assumption that drug toxicity is really a function of drug AUC, and that equivalent AUC for human and mouse will result in equivalent toxicity.

Further readings:

Sunday, January 04, 2015

Phase I Dose Escalation Study Design: "3 + 3 Design"

For the first-in-human clinical trial, the dose escalation study design is often utilized. in dose escalation study, subjects are enrolled in cohorts (batches) with increasing doses. whether or not the study goes further to the higher dose depends on the assessment of the previous dose. The assessment is mainly based on the DLT (dose limiting toxicity) - side effects of a drug or other treatment that are serious enough to prevent an increase in dose or level of that treatment.

Dose escalation study can be with placebo control or without placebo control. For a dose escalation study with placebo control, the placebo control is within each dose cohort, not across the cohorts. A dose escalation study without placebo control is often used in studies for life-threatening diseases such as cancers and AIDS. 

The most common dose escalation study design is the rule-based "3 + 3 design". The "3 + 3 design" can be depicted as below: 

  The "3 + 3 design" is clearly explained in FDA guidance "Clinical Considerations for Therapeutic Cancer Vaccines" as following: 
The traditional standard dose escalation schedule in the development of cancer therapeutics uses the so-called “3 + 3 design” to avoid selection of a phase 2 clinical trial dose that causes a treatment-limiting toxicity in more than 17% of subjects, a standard considered acceptable as an outpatient therapeutic for patients with limited options and life-threatening diseases. In a “3 + 3 design,” three patients are initially enrolled into a given dose cohort. If there is no DLT observed in any of these subjects, the trial proceeds to enroll additional subjects into the next higher dose cohort. If one subject develops a DLT at a specific dose, an additional three subjects are enrolled into that same dose cohort. Development of DLTs in more than 1 of 6 subjects in a specific dose cohort suggests that the MTD has been exceeded, and further dose escalation is not pursued.
In summary, the "3 + 3 design" is:
  • Rule based design
  • Start by allocating lowest dose level to first cohort
  • Adaptively escalate/de-escalate based on observed DLTs
  • Repeat until MTD obtained or trial is stopped
The "3 + 3 design" is very straight forward, robust, simple and can be very well understood by clinicians and investigators. However, the "3 + 3 design" has its limitations. It is limitations may be summarized as the followings: 
  • Ignores dosage history other than previous cohort
  • Same action under qualitatively different situations (e.g., 0/3 and 1/6 lead to same action)
  • Ignores uncertainty (if true DLT rate is p = 0.5, 11% of the time we will see 0 or 1 DLT in 6 patients)
  • Cannot re-escalate
  • Fixed cohort sizes (either 3 or 6)
  • Pre-defined dose levels to be potentially tested
  • Low probability of selecting true MTD
  • High variability in MTD estimates
  • MTD is not a dose with any particular probability of DLT, but in the range from 20% to 25% DLT.
  • Can not estimate MTD with target probability of DLT less than 20% or greater than 33%.
  • Not all toxicity data of all patients are used to determine the MTD.
  • Many patients are likely to be treated at low doses.
The limitations are also cited in FDA's guidance "Clinical Considerations for Therapeutic Cancer Vaccines":
Many cancer vaccine trials have used the “3 + 3 design,” and the results show that, except in very rare situations, an MTD for a cancer vaccine may not be identified. In these trials, the dose-toxicity curve may be so flat that the highest dose that can be administered is limited by manufacturing or anatomic issues rather than toxicity. Therefore, this “3 + 3 design” may not be the most suitable approach to gathering information from early phase trials of cancer vaccines, and alternative trial designs should be considered.
Given the relatively acceptable safety profile of some classes of cancer vaccines, alternative dose-escalation approaches, such as accelerated titration or continuous reassessment, may be considered instead of the standard “3 + 3 design”. When using such designs, the protocol should describe acceptable parameters for the dosing endpoint (supported by data). Irrespective of which dose-escalation approach is chosen, the study protocol should clearly define DLTs, the subject “off-treatment” criteria, and the study stopping rules that will ensure subject safety. When no DLT is expected or achieved, optimization of other outcomes, such as the immune response, can be useful to identify doses for subsequent studies.
Because of these limitations, the alternative phase I dose escalation study designs have been proposed and used in the practice. These methods are:

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Clinical trial design for treatment of Ebola virus disease versus Ebola vaccine

Ebola outbreak in West Africa has brought a lot of attentions to this deadly virus. The world is so unprepared for the Ebola treatment and prevention. Now that the developed countries including US are starting to develop the drugs for treating and preventing the Ebola virus, the discussions about the Ebola drug trials are in the center stage.

First of all, there is a big distinction between developing the drugs for treating Ebola virus disease and developing the Ebola vaccine. Many people may discuss the Ebola trial without clear distinction of the treatment and prevention. In a Forbes article “FDA: Some Ebola Patients Need To Get Placebo”, the author clearly mis-interpreted the original FDA paper and blurred the distinction between drug for treating Ebola patients and the Ebola vaccine.

The ethical dilemma and debate about the randomized, controlled trial are on the issues for drug trials targeting the treatment of the Ebola patients, not the Ebola vaccine. FDA’s article in New England Journal of Medicine “Evaluating Ebola Therapies — The Case for RCTs” discussed the issues with clinical trial design for Ebola therapies (treating Ebola infected patients), not for Ebola vaccine (preventing people from Ebola infection).

So far, the majority of the clinical trials are focusing on the Ebola virus vaccine, not on the Ebola treatment. According to clinicaltrials.gov, there are 21 clinical trials registered, except for 2 trials that are conducted in ebola patients or ebola virus infested patients, all other trials are for Ebola vaccine and conducted in healthy volunteers

The immediate need is to find effective therapies for treating the Ebola virus infected patients. Down the road, developing effective vaccines to prevent the Ebola virus infection (at least prevent the similar outbreaks) is more important. Without any incentives, the drug companies may be more interested in developing the Ebola vaccine because of its much greater marketing potential.

 A Comparison of Ebola Therapy and Ebola Vaccine


Ebola Therapy
Ebola Vaccine
Purpose
Treatment of Ebola Virus Infected patients
Prevention people from Ebola virus infection
Target population
Ebola virus infected patients
General public or population at risk for Ebola infection (such as health care workers)
Study population
Ebola virus infected patients
Healthy volunteers
Efficacy Measure
Survival rate (proportion of patients who can survive in two weeks)

the immunogeneicity (i.e., the occurrence or titer of the anti-ebola virus antibodies).

Control group
Placebo-controlled study is not feasible, but the best supportive care as control group is feasible.
Placebo control is feasible.
Study endpoint
Survival is a hard endpoint
Titer of antibodies is a surrogate, soft endpoint. The overall effectiveness is difficult to measure.
Tolerance for safety
Comparing to the vaccine, there may be more tolerance in terms of the safety.
The new drug / therapy must be extremely safe since the vaccine will be used by the healthy people

Specifically for clinical trials to find effective therapies for Ebola virus infected patients, the clinical trial design is at the center of the debate. The experts in European countries prefer the clinical trials using the historical control (i.e., without the concurrent control group) while US (FDA and NIH) prefers the traditional randomized controlled trials with the best supportive care as the control group.

With very high mortality rate, it is understandable to think that a randomized, supportive care controlled or placebo controlled study is ridiculous. If there is a new experimental therapy with even a slim of hope, people will jump on it. Just as it said in the article “The Ethical Issues In Using An Experimental Ebola Drug”.
“the World Health Organization said in a statement today that it is ethical to offer unproven drugs to treat or prevent the spread of the Ebola virus
Under American law, the Food and Drug Administration can permit a drug manufacturer to provide an unapproved drug to patients if they don't have any alternatives and the consequences are severe. It's called "compassionate use" and most of these exceptions are granted when the drug is in a clinical trial testing its safety, proper dose and efficacy.
The most profound example of this comes from the 1980s, in the early days of the AIDS epidemic. There was no approved drug that had any effect, and people were dying. Dr. Anthony Fauci [director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] was key to changing this approach, and expanding access to AZT outside of clinical trials. But this is different in that the drugs for the Ebola virus have not yet entered clinical trials in humans.”

Considering the high mortality rate and no proven therapy for treating the Ebola virus disease, using a historical control seems to an easy choice. With this design, all patients will be given the experimental drug(s). If the survival rate in patients treated with experimental drug(s) is lower than a fixed number (historical control), the experimental treatment would be considered as effective. However, it all depends on how reliable the historical control is and whether or not the other best supportive cares have changed over time. The study design can still be randomized and controlled. It is just the concurrent control group is another experimental drug(s).

It is generally agreed that the clinical trials for Ebola virus disease treatment should have more than one arms and should be randomized, controlled. The European countries seem to prefer a study design with multiple experimental therapies to compare each other. US (FDA and NIH) seems to prefer a study design with experimental therapy compared with the concurrent control of the best supportive care. This can be essentially viewed as an add-on study design with one group to be the best supportive care only and another group to be the best supportive care + the experimental therapy. For the purpose of demonstrating the efficacy of the experimental therapy, this seems to be the most reasonable approach.

In the end, the action is always better than debate. Let’s put aside the debate and start the clinical trials for Ebola treatment. The clinical trials for Ebola virus disease treatment (new therapies) have begun.
 “US scientists have not yet announced which treatments will be tested in clinical trials that they plan to run in the United States and, possibly, in Liberia. Doctors and researchers organizing the trials met at the US National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, on 11 November.
"We had good discussions,” says Clifford Lane, deputy director for clinical research and special projects at the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda. “We are working on refining our adaptive-design protocol with specific arms based upon those discussions.”
MSF says that the trials at its sites will test whether the interventions boost the proportion of patients who survive for two weeks. It hopes to report initial results from the trials as early as February 2015.
MSF said previously that none of the trials run at its sites will assign patients to receive standard of care treatment rather than an experimental intervention. Whether or not to use a standard of care control group in these trials is a thorny and hotly debated question. The US trials plan to use a control group, but have not made final decisions about the trial design.”
It is reported that the first Ebola treatment trial has started in January, 2015. The study lead by Dr Jake Dunning is a study without concurrent control group - there is no randomization. The Ebola virus positive patients are asked if they are willing to participate in the trial to receive the experimental treatment. if they decline the participation, the patients will receive the standard supportive care. Hopefully, they will track the at least the mortality rate in those who decline the participation.

The Ebola vaccine trials has also begun and some of the studies have reported the success (safe and generating antibody response in healthy volunteers).

Monday, December 01, 2014

FDA's Priority Review Voucher Programs

A voucher is a bond of the redeemable transaction type which is worth a certain monetary value and which may be spent only for specific reasons or on specific goods. Examples include (but are not limited to) housing, travel, and food vouchers.

You may find it surprising, the voucher has been used by FDA as a tool to encourage the drug development in certain areas.

In 2008, FDA issued its 1st voucher guidance titled “Tropical Disease Priority Review Vouchers”. Last month, FDA has published its second guidance related to voucher. The draft guidance is called “Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Vouchers, Guidance for Industry”

How does it work?
  • Sponsors must first have an NDA/BLA approved for an indication in designated tropical disease area or in qualified rare pediatric disease area. 
  • Sponsor will then submit the application for priority review voucher
  • Sponsor may need to pay additional application fee for voucher
  • Once the priority review voucher is approved, the voucher can be sold and transferred to other sponsors
  • Voucher can be redeemed for priority review for any NDA/BLA submission 
Both voucher programs are designed to provide incentives for drug developers to invest in the neglected disease area or in the disease area that return on investment (ROI) is very low.
According to FDA's MAPP "Review Designation Policy: Priority (P) and Standard (S)", applications or supplements submitted with a priority review voucher will automatically receive a priority review designation.

The tropical disease priority review voucher was issued in 2008 and it was not used often by the sponsors. However, the tropical disease priority review voucher may find new popularity thanks to the global fight against Ebola. Ironically, at the time when the Tropical Disease Priority Review Voucher guidance was issued, the deadly Ebola disease was not on the list of tropical disease areas.
Product applications for the prevention or treatment of the following tropical diseases may qualify:

• Tuberculosis
• Malaria
• Blinding trachoma
• Buruli Ulcer
• Cholera
• Dengue/Dengue haemorrhagic fever
• Dracunculiasis (guinea-worm disease)
• Fascioliasis
• Human African trypanosomiasis
• Leishmaniasis
• Leprosy
• Lymphatic filariasis
• Onchocerciasis
• Schistosomiasis
• Soil transmitted helminthiasis
• Yaws
• Any other infectious disease for which there is no significant market in developed nations and that disproportionately affects poor and marginalized populations, designated by regulation by the Secretary (section 524(a)(3))

One may argue that the Ebola can be included in the last item “any other infectious disease for which there is no significant market in developed nations and that disproportionately affects poor and marginalized populations, designated by regulation by the Secretary”.

To ensure that Ebola is included in the Tropical Disease Priority Review Voucher program and to remove the obstacles for voucher program to become popular, a Senate bill has been proposed. The bill passed the senate in November.

The newly issued guidance on Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher program seems to be better designed and hopefully it will gain more popularity than the Tropical Disease Priority Review Voucher program. To avoid incentivizing sponsors to exclude adults affected by the rare pediatric disease from clinical trials, FDA expects adult patients to play a prominent role in process. Sponsors remain eligible for a voucher if they use adult patients in clinical trials or seek an adult indication in addition to the primary pediatric indication. The qualified rare pediatric disease will most likely also qualify for the orphan disease category. A sponsor may obtain the Orphan Drug Designation Status to avoid paying the application fee for voucher application.

How much is a priority review voucher worth?

The value of a priority review voucher is not entirely clear. There are very few transactions of a priority review voucher sold from one sponsor to another.
  • On 30 July 2014, BioMarin announced that it had sold its voucher to Sanofi and Regeneron for $67.5 million.
  • The Canadian pharmaceutical company Knight Therapeutics has reportedly sold its Neglected Tropical Disease Priority Review Voucher to Gilead Sciences for $125 million
  • On May 27, 2015, Retrophin sold their priority review voucher to Sanofi for $245 million
Reference: 
                  raps.org: Everything you need to know about priority review voucher

Monday, November 24, 2014

FDA's Position on Use of SI Units for Lab Tests

Previously, I wrote an article to discuss the SI unit versus US conventional unit. FDA actually issued its position statement about these two units.


CDER and CBER are evaluating an approach to transition to general acceptance of laboratory data in clinical trials that are measured and reported in Système International (SI) units instead of U.S. Conventional units. The objective is to establish an agency-wide policy on the acceptance of SI units in product submissions.
CDER and CBER recognize that SI units are the worldwide standard and international trials regularly measure and report lab tests using SI units. The Centers also acknowledge that the majority of U.S. healthcare providers are trained using U.S. conventional units. Lab results reported using U.S. conventional units often convey the most clinical meaning to U.S. healthcare providers, including CDER and CBER reviewers. In the absence of a holistic transition within the U.S. healthcare community to SI units, conversion of certain lab test results to U.S. conventional units may be a necessary interim step toward a transition to full SI unit reporting.
CDER and CBER are currently evaluating common and therapeutic area-specific lab tests to determine which pose significant interpretation risks during the review of new drug applications.  While this evaluation is underway, sponsors are strongly encouraged to solicit input from review divisions as early in the development cycle as possible to minimize the potential for conversion needs during NDA/BLA review. CDER and CBER encourage sponsors to discuss this issue with FDA before the start of Phase 3 trials.  In some cases the issue may warrant discussion with FDA at the End-of-Phase 2 meeting.
If conversion requests are received, sponsors are advised to discuss the conversion request as early as possible with the review division and if needed, provide a proposal for what can be reasonably accomplished to meet the review division’s needs without undue burden in time or costs.
October 25, 2013

For a specific clinical trial, it is prudent to ask the central laboratory to report the results in both units. It is not a bid deal for central laboratory to include results in both units in the data sets. for US sites, the lab reports may be in US conventional units and for non-US sites, the lab reports may be in SI units. For data presentations (table, listings, and figures), SI units may be used for international studies and US conventional unit may be used in US only studies. 

Sunday, November 16, 2014

VALOR Trial - A Successful and Failed Phase III Study with Adaptive Sample Size Re-stimation for Promising Zone

Motivated by searching for the innovative clinical trial methodologies to increase the clinical trial success and minimize the clinical trial cost, various adaptive design methods have been proposed. Initially, clinical trials using the adaptive designs are usually in the early phase (phase I or II) clinical trials. For phase III confirmatory clinical trials, the traditional clinical trial methods are still dominating. Many publications about using the adaptive design in late stage trials are based on retrospective assessment or simulation: had the original studies been done with adaptive design, how much cost would have been saved or a failed trial might have been rescued. After many years of education and advocate, adaptive designs with innovative methods in phase III studies have actually been implemented and some of the trial results start to surface. One of the examples is a trial called VALOR –  a phase III, placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind study in relapsed/refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML). The study adopted one of the key adaptive design features - the Sample Size Re-estimation (SSR).

The rationale behind the Sample Size Re-estimation is that the assumptions for designing the confirmatory trial is either not entirely available or is available but with a high degree of uncertainty.  This uncertainty could result in the incorrect or inaccurate estimates of sample size during the design stage. With the Sample Size Re-estimation, an interim analysis can be performed during the middle of the study to re-check these assumptions. Depending on the findings from interim analysis, the decision about the next step can be made.

In VALOR study, the Sample Size Re-estimation was based on a Promising Zone approach. The SSR based on Promising Zone was proposed by Mehta and Pocock and described in their paper “Adaptive increase in sample size when interim results are promising: A practical guide with examples”. The general idea is to start a phase III trial with the best or better scenario with optimistic assumptions. The optimistic assumptions will require a trial with smaller sample size to start with and consequently require less commitment in resources and finance in the beginning. During the study, an interim analysis is performed to check the reality and to plan for the next step with the following choices.

  • Stop early if overwhelming evidence of efficacy
  • Stop early for futility if low conditional power
  • Increase the number of sample size if results are promising

This can be illustrated in the diagram below. Notice that with this method, the sample size can only be adjusted up (not down), can only be increased (not decreased). The sample size increase is one-time with pre-specified fixed number preferred.


Since VALOR study was initiated in December 2010, this SSR method with Promising Zone approach had been widely followed in statistical community and had been the topic in many adaptive design discussions. See the presentation by Zoran Antonijevic "Harvard Catalyst Adaptie Clinical Trials Case Study - The VALOR Trial for AML". There is also a youtube video titled "The Phase 3 VALOR Trial: Adaptive Sample Size Re-estimation"

Cytel Inc. had built the SSR with Promising Zone approach in their EAST software for study design. They advocate that adaptive sample size re-estimation in EAST reduces risk and enhances the clinical trial success. With Promising Zone SSR method, an adaptive design can:
  • DE-RISK INVESTMENT – Avoid expensive up-front commitments of sample size
  • ENHANCE SUCCESS – Boost power when initial assumptions fail
  • PROMISING ZONETM – Increase sample size conditional on interim data
  • ALPHA CONTROL – Guarantee strong type I error control required by regulators

Had the VALOR study achieved the primary efficacy endpoint of statistical significance, it would be a wonderful story to tell how the Promising Zone SSR method had De-Risked Investment, Enhanced success.

Unfortunately, after all of these extra efforts (in adaptive design, DSMB, interim analysis, sample size re-estimation), the study failed and did not reach the statistical significance for the primary efficacy endpoint. P-value just missed the magical number of p=0.05. Here is the announcement from the VALOR study sponsor – Sunesis Pharmaceuticals:
Sunesis Announces Results From Pivotal Phase 3 VALOR Trial of Vosaroxin and Cytarabine in Patients With First Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia
“Sunesis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:SNSS) today announced results from the pivotal Phase 3 VALOR trial, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of vosaroxin and cytarabine in patients with first relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML). At more than 100 leading international sites, the trial enrolled 711 patients, who were stratified for age, geography and disease status. The trial did not meet its primary endpoint of demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in overall survival, with a median overall survival of 7.5 months for vosaroxin and cytarabine compared to 6.1 months for placebo and cytarabine (HR=0.865, p=0.06).”
Additional details about the trial design are coming to surface. See the screen shot from the Sunesis presentation:


The study was planned based on the most optimistic assumption (i.e., HR=0.71) and the sample size re-estimation was based on the most conservative assumption (i.e., HR=0.80) at that time. Unfortunately, the actual result of HR=0.865 was beyond the most conservative assumption of HR=0.80. It would be interesting to know what exactly the HR was from the interim analysis.  

I guess that Sunesis and Cytel are now analyzing the data to search for the clue why the study did not meet the primary endpoint. It is very possible that the study conduct, patient population might be different before and after the interim analysis. While the study team were strictly blinded to the details of the interim analysis results, the decision on whether or not to increase the sample size had to be announced. This announcement could have impact on the patient characteristics or conduct of the study. Here was a discussion about the announcement of increasing the sample size after the interim analysis at that time. It is clear the announcement of increasing the sample size have some impacts on the financial analyst, potentially also have some impacts on the study team / investigators in the study.   

           Sunesis Pharmaceuticals to Implement One-Time Sample Size Increase to Phase 3
           VALOR Trial in AML
 When last September the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) recommended expanding the sample size of the study based on interim data that suggested a "promising" outcome, vosaroxin garnered even more investor attention.  Valor Trial Design And Alpha SpendAt the analyst meeting in October 2012, Sunesis provided an update on the adaptive design of the study that allows for a potential one-time sample size increase of the patient population. Based on its review, the DSMB recommended the Valor study increase the sample size to 675 patients for a 90% statistical power to detect a 30% overall survival difference (5 months versus 6.5 months) with an HR of 0.77. The DSMB concluded that the interim data indicated a "promising" outcome - ruling out futility and an "unfavorable" scenario, but falling short of a "favorable" result.
Based on the nuances of statistical analysis, ruling out both favorable and unfavorable scenarios for a promising outcome strongly suggests that vosaroxin was closer to non-inferiority and in need of a larger sample size in order to show a statistically significant treatment difference. It was a smart idea by management to utilize the first interim analysis of Valor as a proxy for a randomized Phase 2 study whereby it could better estimate the sample size needed to demonstrate a clinical effect. Powering the study has thus been the main factor in influencing its "promising" outcome

VALOR study is a well-conducted study. From the standpoint of the study implementation including the sample size re-estimation, the study is a success. However, the study failed to reach the statistical significance for the primary efficacy endpoint.

In the end, the statistics is about the uncertainty. While the sample size re-estimation can reduce the uncertainty to some degree, it can not eliminate the uncertainty. We will never be able to design a study to guarantee the success.

Saturday, November 01, 2014

Standard of Care (SOC) as Control Group in Clinical Trials

For randomized, controlled clinical trials, the selection of the control group is one of the key issues in the study design. This is why ICH has a specific guideline (E10) for “CHOICE OF CONTROL GROUP AND RELATED ISSUES IN CLINICAL TRIALS”. The choice of the control group will decide whether or not the trial is a superiority or non-inferiority study, double-blinded/single-blinded/open label, and will decide the sample size.

It becomes pretty common that the Standard of Care (SOC) may be chosen as the control group. We often run into an issue that for a specific disease (indication), there is no regulatory-approved therapy (existing therapy) and it is not ethical to conduct the Placebo-controlled study, the comparison of experimental therapy versus Standard of Care seems to be the only choice. 

What is the Definition of the SOC?

There is no standard definition for SOC from regulatory guidelines. According to  Webster’s New World Medical Dictionary, SOC is defined as “the level at which the average, prudent provider in a given situation would managed the patient’s care under the same or similar circumstances.”

From National Cancer Institute: “standard of care” is defined as “treatment that experts agree is appropriate, accepted, and widely used. Also called best practice, standard medical care,  and standard therapy.”

There are more definitions, but all similar.
“A standard of care is a formal diagnostic and treatment process a doctor will follow for a patient with a certain set of symptoms or a specific illness. That standard will follow guidelines and protocols that experts would agree with as most appropriate, also called "best practice."
In legal terms, a standard of care is used as the benchmark against a doctor's actual work. For example, in a malpractice lawsuit, the doctor's lawyers would want to prove that the doctor's actions were aligned with the standard of care. The plaintiff's lawyers would want to show how a doctor violated the accepted standard of care and was therefore negligent.”
Standards of care are developed in a number of ways: Sometimes they are simply developed over time, and in other cases, they are the result of clinical findings. In modern era, the SOC are typically based on the evidence-based medicine. The SOC are based on the results of clinical trials, the Meta analysis results if there are multiple clinical trials, and the Cochrane systematic review of evidences. The SOC may come out as suggestions and treatment guidelines issued by the professional societies. There are actually so many treatment guidelines by different professional societies and by different countries. Just to list a couple of treatment guidelines below:

§         National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines

§         Evidence-based guideline: Intravenous immunoglobulin in the treatment of neuromuscular disorders

Does A Standard of Care therapy have to be approved by regulatory authority (such as FDA)?

Not necessarily. As a matter of fact, some of the SOCs may not be regulated by FDA at al. For example, the surgery and the plasma exchange are techniques and procedures that may not be part of FDA regulation.

In FDA’s guidance  “Expedited Programs for Serious Conditions – Drugs and Biologics”, SOC was discussed as part of the discussions for ‘available therapy’. The guidance states:

“For purposes of this guidance, FDA generally considers available therapy (and the terms existing treatment and existing therapy) as a therapy that:
  §         Is approved or licensed in the United States for the same indication being considered for the new drug and
 §         Is relevant to current U.S. standard of care (SOC) for the indication
 FDA’s available therapy determination generally focuses on treatment options that reflect the current SOC for the specific indication (including the disease stage) for which a product is being developed. In evaluating the current SOC, FDA considers recommendations by authoritative scientific bodies (e.g., National Comprehensive Cancer Network, American Academy of Neurology) based on clinical evidence and other reliable information that reflects current clinical practice. When a drug development program targets a subset of a broader disease population (e.g., a subset identified by a genetic mutation), the SOC for the broader population, if there is one, generally is considered available therapy for the subset, unless there is evidence that the SOC is less effective in the subset.
 Over the course of new drug development, it is foreseeable that the SOC for a given condition may evolve (e.g., because of approval of a new therapy or new information about available therapies). FDA will determine what constitutes available therapy at the time of the relevant regulatory decision for each expedited program a sponsor intends to use (e.g., generally early in development for fast track and breakthrough therapy designations, at time of biologics license application (BLA) or new drug application (NDA) submissions for priority review designation, during BLA or NDA review for accelerated approval). FDA encourages sponsors to discuss available therapy considerations with the Agency during interactions with FDA.
 As appropriate, FDA may consult with special Government employees or other experts when making an available therapy determination.”

The newly issued  FDA Guidance on Available Therapy echoes the similar opinion:
“available therapy (and the terms existing treatments and existing therapy) should be interpreted as therapy that is specified in the approved labeling of regulated products, with only rare exceptions.
 FDA recognizes that there are cases where a safe and effective therapy for a disease or condition exists but it is not approved for that particular use by FDA. However, for purposes of the regulations and policy statements described in Section III, which are intended to permit prompt FDA approval of medically important therapies, only in exceptional cases will a treatment that is not FDA-regulated (e.g., surgery) or that is not labeled for use but is supported by compelling literature evidence (e.g., certain established oncologic treatments) be considered available therapy.”
FDA guidance Non-Inferiority Clinical Trials answered the question if the active comparator for a non-inferiority study can be a product without label. The active comparator could be a SOC.

“Can a drug product be used as the active comparator in a study designed to show non-inferiority if its labeling does not have the indication for the disease being studied, and could published reports in the literature be used to support a treatment effect of the active control?
 The active control does not have to be labeled for the indication being studied in the NI study, as long as there are adequate data to support the chosen NI margin. FDA does, in some cases, rely on published literature and has done so in carrying out the meta-analyses of the active control used to define NI margins. An FDA guidance for industry on Providing Clinical Evidence of Effectiveness for Human Drug and Biological Products describes the approach to considering the use of literature in providing evidence of effectiveness, and similar considerations would apply here. Among these considerations are the quality of the publications (the level of detail provided), the difficulty of assessing the endpoints used, changes in practice between the present and the time of the studies, whether FDA has reviewed some or all of the studies, and whether FDA and the sponsor have access to the original data. As noted above, the endpoint for the NI study could be different (e.g., death, heart attack, and stroke) from the primary endpoint (cardiovascular death) in the studies if the alternative endpoint is well assessed”
How Standard are the Standards of Care?

It depends on the specific disease area and the available treatment. A standard of care in one country, one hospital may not necessarily be the same standard in another. Further, one doctor's standard can vary from another doctor's. In many cases, even though the same therapy is considered as the standard of care, the usage of the therapy may be quite different. For example, the tPA is considered as a standard of care in US to treat the leg attack (peripheral arterial occlusion). However, different medical centers and different doctors may give tPA therapy differently – the differences are reflected in the total amount of the tPA dose, bolus versus continuous infusion, infusion rate, total length of the tPA treatment.


The heterogeneity of the standard of care presents great challenges in conducting clinical trials using the standard of care as the control group. This issue was extensively discussed in FDA’s guidance on Chronic Cutaneous Ulcer and Burn Wounds — Developing Products for Treatment. If we think about doing a multi-national clinical trial with the standard of care as the control group, the challenges will be even greater or the trial is not entirely feasible because of the difficulties in defining the SOC for a specific disease treatment.  Here are the paragraphs from FDA’s guidance concerning about using the Standard of Care as the control group.
“Standard care refers to generally accepted wound care procedures, other than the investigational product, that will be used in the clinical trial. Good standard care procedures in a wound-treatment product trial are a prerequisite for assessing safety and efficacy of a product. Since varying standard care procedures can confound the outcome of a clinical trial, it is generally advisable that all participating centers agree to use the same procedures and these procedures are described within the clinical protocol. If it is not practical to apply uniform standard care procedures across study centers, randomization stratified by study center should be considered. It is also important that the sample size within study centers and wound care records be adequate to assess the effect of wound care variation.
A number of standard procedures for ulcer and burn care are widely accepted. Several professional groups have initiated development of care guidelines for ulcers and burns. The Agency does not require adherence to any specific guidelines, the basic principle being that standard care regimens in wound-treatment product trials should optimize conditions for healing and be prospectively defined in the protocol. The rationale for the standard care chosen should be included in the protocol, and the study plan should be of sufficient detail for consistent and uniform application across study centers. Case report forms (CRFs) should be designed such that, at each visit, investigators describe the type of ulcer or burn care actually delivered (e.g., extent of debridement, use of concomitant medications). For outpatients, the CRF should also capture compliance with standard care measures, including wound dressing, off-loading, and appropriate supportive factors, such as dietary intake.
The value of study site consistency in standard care regimens within a trial cannot be over-emphasized because of the profound effects these procedures have on clinical outcome for burns and chronic wounds. Consistency in standard care regimens is important for minimizing variability and allowing assessment of treatment effect. It may be reasonable to evaluate a single standard care regimen in early trials to minimize this variability. If comparison of an investigational product to more than one commonly used standard care option is desired, the overall development plan should include specific assessment of the effect of these standard care options on the experimental treatment. These common options should be identified and addressed prospectively in clinical trial design including being clearly described in the clinical protocol and compliance captured via the CRFs; criteria for data poolability should be defined prospectively. Every attempt should be made to minimize deviations from the procedures described in the protocol and subject compliance recorded in CRFs. If more than one standard care regimen is used in the same clinical trial, then randomized treatment allocation within strata defined by these options in standard care is important.”

To minimize the heterogeneity of the standard of care, cluster randomization may also be emplyed. As stated in FDA’s guidance “Antibacterial Therapies for Patients With Unmet Medical Need for the Treatment of Serious Bacterial Diseases”, with cluster randomization, “Patients enrolled at sites randomized to the standard-of-care arm would be treated no differently than is usual practice at that site, while patients enrolled at sites randomized to the investigational drug arm would be treated with the investigational drug.”

When a clinical trial uses standard of case as control group, should the study be designed as superiority or non-inferiority?

It depends on whether or not the experimental treatment group is a stand alone (without standard of case) or add-on (on top of the standard of care) therapy.

If the experimental treatment group is an add-on therapy and the experimental treatment is given on top of the existing standard of case, the trial design must be a superiority study to demonstrate that the add-on therapy is superior to the existing standard of case.

If the experimental treatment group is a stand alone therapy and can be given without the standard of care, the trial design can be either non-inferiority or superiority depending on the effect size of the experimental therapy.

In FDA’s guidance “Non-Inferiority Clinical Trials”, the ‘Add-on study’ was suggested  as an alternative to the non-inferiority study design. In the guidance, ‘treatment that are already available’ can include the standards of care. The combo therapy of the novel treatment plus the existing treatment must be shown to be superior to the existing treatment (standard of care alone) or the existing treatment + Placebo.

“Add-on study
In many cases, for a pharmacologically novel treatment, the most interesting question is not whether it is effective alone but whether the new drug can add to the effectiveness of treatments that are already available. The most pertinent study would therefore be a comparison of the new agent and placebo, each added to established therapy. Thus, new treatments for heart failure have added new agents (e.g., ACE inhibitors, beta blockers, and spironolactone) to diuretics and digoxin. As each new agent became established, it became part of the background therapy to which any new agent and placebo would be added. This approach is also typical in oncology, in the treatment of seizure disorders, and, in many cases, in the treatment of AIDS. “

“In this multicenter, randomized, controlled superiority trial, 542 patients scheduled for elective, high-risk abdominal surgery will be included. Patients are allocated to standard care (control group) or early goal-directed therapy (intervention group) using a randomization procedure stratified by center and type of surgery. In the control group, standard perioperative hemodynamic monitoring is applied. In the intervention group, early goal-directed therapy is added to standard care, based on continuous monitoring of cardiac output with arterial waveform analysis.”