Risk difference and confidence interval for Analyses of AEs and Clinical Laboratory Data

Several years ago, I posted an article "Should hypothesis tests be performed and p-values be provided for safety variables in efficacy evaluation clinical trials?". There are some new development on this topic. 

Recently, FDA in collaboration with the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy hosted a one-day virtual meeting focused on advancing pre-market safety analytics. At this workshop, it was revealed that FDA Biomedical Informatics and Regulatory Review Science (BIRRS) Team was working on a document called "Standard Safety Tables and Figures: Integrated Guide". The document is currently posted on regulations.gov for public comments. The integrated guide proposed the mockup shells how the safety data analyses (adverse events and clinical laboratory data) should be displayed. Throughout all the proposed shells, we can see that a column for "'Risk Difference (%) (95% CI)" are included. Here are a couple of examples. 

If this integrated guide become official and is implemented, the future analyses for safety data (adverse events and clinical laboratory parameters) will be shifted from the pure summary statistics to summary statistics + point estimate and 95% confidence interval for risk differences. p-values and hypothesis testing should not be provided. 

Risk difference and its 95% confidence interval are provided for the descriptive purpose, not for inferential purpose. As stated in the integrated guide "These safety analyses are exploratory in nature and confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk difference presented here are not adjusted for multiplicity."

In AE tables, the sort order will be by the risk difference (from the highest to the lowest). In this way, the reviewers can easily identify the AEs with largest risk difference between two treatment groups. 

There are several ways in calculating the confidence interval for risk difference. The commonly used approach is Wilson score method - a method of estimating the population probability from a sample probability when the probability follows the binomial distribution.

There seems to be some differences between the regulatory requirement and the requirement by the medical journals. We continue to see the requests from journals like New England Journal of Medicine for providing the p-values for AE summary tables. In our published article, "Inhaled Treprostinil in Pulmonary Hypertension Due to Interstitial Lung Disease", we had to provide the p values for AEs and other safety endpoints for treatment group comparison per NEJM's editor's request.